An Assessment of Weather-Related Risks in Europe: Maps of Flood and Drought Risks

This technical report describes the adopted methodology and the outputs produced during the first 18 months of life of the 'ADAM' project. ADAM (Adaptation and Mitigation Strategies: Supporting European Climate Policy) is an Integrated Project financed under thematic priority 'Global Change and Ecosystems' of the 6th framework programme (for further information, see www.adam.info) The task 'A2.1 - An assessment of weather-related risks in Europe' has the following main objective: 'Quantify and map weather-related extreme-event risks to public and private capital assets, human lives, and agriculture/forestry/tourism, and identify high-risk areas (hot spots) on which to focus more detailed analysis.' The key innovative aspects of the work herein presented are manifold: - the quantification of the probabilistic monetary impact of extreme events; - the combined use of modelling techniques and of observed data to supply the lack of information at the various scales of relevance of the study; - the estimation of uncertainty arising from limitations in data availability and modelling assumptions; - the geographical scale (continental) of the exercise. The key outputs of task A2.1 are digital maps of risks from natural extremes at European scale identifying monetary/economic losses. The maps are furnished as input to other tasks of package A2 for successive modelling exercises and analysis. As defined in the project work-plan, task A.21 has duration of 24 months. The 18-month deliverables are maps of flood and drought risks. The report focuses on inland river flood damage to properties and infrastructures and on climatic stresses (drought and heat waves) in agriculture. Population exposure has only been addressed in a partial study and it's therefore not included in the final monetary losses assessment. The work on floods has been carried out by the Institute for Environment and Sustainability of the Joint Research Centre; the work on droughts and heat waves by the Department of Agronomy and Land Management - University of Florence. The methodology is centred on the risk paradigm of the research community. The risk is defined as a product of hazard, exposure and vulnerability where: - Hazard is the threatening natural event including its probability/magnitude of occurrence; - Exposure is the values/humans that are present at the location related to a given event; - Vulnerability is the lack of resistance to damaging/destructive forces (damage function). This definition has been applied to extreme events such as floods and heat/water stresses, with the due adjustments required by data availability and specific modelling techniques.JRC.H.7-Land management and natural hazard

Methods for Regional Integrated Assessment: High resolution gridded emission distribution in the LUISA Platform

This report illustrates the progresses made towards the inclusion of air quality related issues in the Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) platform. It focuses on the description of the methodology to derive high-resolution gridded-emission spatially geo-referenced layers from outputs and datasets integrated in LUISA. In the framework of the integration of the Regional Integrated Assessment Tool (RIAT model) and the Land Use Modelling Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) platform, we implemented the downscaling of atmospheric emission data from national level to very high spatial resolution (100m). The GAINS model (IIASA) provides the input emission data for different scenarios, up to year 2030, which are disaggregated based on 34 different surrogates. Each surrogate is calculated by means of the integration of several proxies derived by statistical datasets, ancillary models and GIS layers in the framework of the LUISA platform. The preliminary results for NOx, PM10 and NH3 (year 2010) are presented in this report together with their first assessment, based on existing emission maps at 7 and 10 Km resolution. Future steps for further refinements are also discussed.JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Triggers for atrial fibrillation. the role of anxiety

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most widely recognized arrhythmia. Systemic arterial hypertension, diabetes, obesity, heart failure, and valvular heart diseases are major risk factors for the onset and progression of AF. Various studies have emphasized the augmented anxiety rate among AF patients due to the poor quality of life; however, little information is known about the possibility of triggering atrial fibrillation by anxiety. +e present review sought to underline the possible pathophysiological association between AF and anxiety disorders and suggests that anxiety can be an independent risk factor for AF, acting as atrigger, creating an arrhythmogenic substrate, and modulating the autonomic nervous system.+e awareness of the role of anxietydisorders as a risk factor for AF may lead to the development of new clinical strategies for the management of AF

Characterization of power transistors as high dose dosimeters

A bipolar transistor, previously investigated as a possible radiation dosimeter and tested under industrial irradiation conditions in high-activity gamma and high-energy, high-power electron beam facilities has been subjected to stability test in order to understand its behaviour and help to improve its performances. Charge carrier lifetime was measured for several sets of transistors which were then irradiated with various doses (3-60 kGy): seven sets with Co-60 gamma rays and eight with a 10MeV electron beam. After irradiation all the transistors were measured and each set was divided into three groups: one group was left untreated, the second group was heated at 100 degrees C for 30 minutes and the third group was heated at 150 degrees C for 30 minutes, for testing the stability of the lifetime. Our data showed that heat treatment quite successfully eliminates post-irradiation changes in the response. Response measurements of the irradiated transistors, heat-treated and untreated, were carried out at room temperature over several weeks after irradiation to establish post-irradiation stability and assess if these transistors could be used for recording dose history. Calibration curves in the range 3-60 kGy for the thermally treated and untreated devices are presented. Dependence of the response of the transistors on the temperature of the measurements in the range 20-50 degrees C is reported

Ionospheric Specifications for SAR Interferometry (ISSI)

The ISSI software package is designed to image the ionosphere from space by calibrating and processing polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (PolSAR) data collected from low Earth orbit satellites. Signals transmitted and received by a PolSAR are subject to the Faraday rotation effect as they traverse the magnetized ionosphere. The ISSI algorithms combine the horizontally and vertically polarized (with respect to the radar system) SAR signals to estimate Faraday rotation and ionospheric total electron content (TEC) with spatial resolutions of sub-kilometers to kilometers, and to derive radar system calibration parameters. The ISSI software package has been designed and developed to integrate the algorithms, process PolSAR data, and image as well as visualize the ionospheric measurements. A number of tests have been conducted using ISSI with PolSAR data collected from various latitude regions using the phase array-type L-band synthetic aperture radar (PALSAR) onboard Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency's Advanced Land Observing Satellite mission, and also with Global Positioning System data. These tests have demonstrated and validated SAR-derived ionospheric images and data correction algorithms

Regional patterns of energy production and consumption factors in Europe Exploratory Project EREBILAND - European Regional Energy Balance and Innovation Landscape

The Resilient Energy Union with Forward Looking Climate Change Policy is one the ten priorities of the overarching Agenda for Jobs, Growth, Fairness and Democratic Change of the European Commission. The Communication on the Energy Union package and its Annex clearly identify EU-wide targets and policy objectives. The Exploratory Project EREBILAND (European Regional Energy Balance and Innovation Landscape) aims at supporting efficient patterns of regional energy supply and demand in Europe. Integration of spatial scales, from EU-wide to regional or local, and a cross-sector approach, are at the core of the project. The approach is based on territorial disaggregation of information, and the development of optimisation scenarios at regional scale. It is centred around the Land Use-based Integrated Sustainability Assessment (LUISA) modelling platform for the assessment of policies and investments that have spatial impacts, in interaction with the JRC-EU-TIMES model – a bottom-up, technology-rich model representing the EU28+ energy system – and the model RHOMOLO that integrates economic and some social dimensions of regional development. Based on currently operational and up-to-date tools available within the EC, the purpose of the EREBILAND project is to: • provide an overview of the current trends of regional energy production and consumption patterns, and • link these patterns to the structural characteristics of the regions, among which: population density and urbanisation trends, development of different economic sectors, and availability of resources and technological infrastructure. This report presents the outcomes of the EREBILAND Project during its first year. In particular, electricity generation and energy consumed by transport sector are analysed, under the EU Energy Reference Scenario 2013, throughout the period 2015 - 2030. Main results of the analysis dedicated to the electricity generation are: • Electricity generation from biomass increases in the large majority of European regions; a slight decrease can be found only in regions producing electricity already in 2015 above the EU28 average (in Denmark). • Electricity produced from biogas experiences less steep changes then biomass, with almost 50% of NUTS2 decreasing or not changing considerably the amount of electricity produced from this source. • Coal: electricity generated from lignite undergoes a significant reduction in all regions using this fuel already in 2015. Conversely, trends in electricity generated from hard coal are more stable, with some regions experiencing an increase: the average change is higher than 50% (a few regions in Eastern European countries), but steeper increases can be found in Austria, Sweden and the United Kingdom. • The amount of electricity generated from gas generally decreases across Europe from 2015 to 2030, with an average decrease higher than 90%. • Geothermal is the least diffuse source used to generate electricity in Europe and only few regions are represented. • Hydroelectric: the amount of electricity generated from this source is in general forecasted to increase in Europe from 2015 to 2030. Exceptions are a few regions in Bulgaria, Czech Republic, Germany, Spain, Greece, Hungary, Portugal, Romania, Sweden and most NUTS2 in the UK. • Electricity generated from nuclear is forecasted to decrease in the majority of the regions with active nuclear power plants in 2015. • Oil: the majority of the regions generating electricity from this fuel in 2015, experience a decrease in 2030. Notable exceptions are a few regions in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Italy, Poland and Slovenia. • Electricity produced from solar is forecasted to increase in almost three quarters of European regions. The only regions where electricity from solar is forecasted to decrease are located in Greece and Romania. • Wind: electricity generated from wind, both on- and off-shore, is in general forecasted to increase in Europe. The largest increases in electricity generated from on-shore wind (above 5 times the 2015 generation levels) can be found in few regions in Czech Republic, Finland, Lubuskie in Poland, the north-est NUTS2 in Romania, Western Slovakia and Slovenia. Main results of the analysis dedicated to energy consumption of the transport sector are: • In more than two thirds of European regions, the energy supplied to cars (fuel: diesel) decreases from 2015 to 2030, with an average decrease of almost 20%. • The energy supplied to cars (fuels: gas and LPG) is forecasted to decrease throughout all European regions. The decrease is more gradual in few regions in Denmark, Portugal, Greece, Spain and Italy. • Energy supplied to cars (fuel: gasoline) is forecasted to decrease in more than 80% of the European regions, with an average decrease of 27%. • The energy supplied to heavy duty trucks (fuel: diesel) is forecasted to progressively decrease from 2015 to 2030 in 66% of the European regions, with an average decrease of more than 8%. • The energy supplied to light duty trucks (fuel: diesel) is forecasted to steeply decrease throughout European regions. • The energy supplied to light duty trucks (fuel: gasoline) is forecasted to increase in more than 90% of European regions, with an average increase of more than 40% from 2015 to 2030. The highest increases (above 70%) take place in eleven regions in Germany, Walloon Brabant in Belgium, Flevoland in the Netherlands, Lower Austria and Eastern Macedonia and Thrace. • The energy supplied to inter-city buses running on diesel is forecasted to increase from 2015 to 2030 in the large majority of European regions, with an average increase of more than 19%. • The energy supplied to urban buses (fuels: gas, diesel and gasoline) is going to moderately increase from 2015 to 2030 in almost 90% regions throughout EU-28, with an average growth of 15%. • Energy supplied to motorcycles (fuel: gasoline) is forecasted to increase in more than 80% of European NUTS2, with an average growth of 16%. • Energy supplied to cars (fuels: hybrid, electric and hydrogen) is forecasted to increase throughout Europe, in general with sharp increases. • Energy supplied to heavy duty trucks (fuel: gas) and light duty trucks (fuel: LPG) is forecasted to increase in all European regions from 2015 to 2020. In most NUTS2 this trend is kept or even accelerates between 2020 and 2030. The only regions where the trend is reversed (lower energy supplied in 2030 compared to 2020) are located in Poland, Greece, Finland (only Åland) and Croatia (only Jadranska Hrvatska).JRC.H.8-Sustainability Assessmen

Minimal Dark Matter predictions for galactic positrons, anti-protons, photons

We present the energy spectra of the fluxes of positrons, anti-protons and photons generated by Dark Matter annihilations in our galaxy, as univocally predicted by the model of Minimal Dark Matter. Due to multi-TeV masses and to the Sommerfeld enhancement of the annihilation cross section, distinctive signals are generated above the background, even with a modest astrophysical boost factor, in the range of energies soon to be explored by cosmic ray experiments.Comment: 16 pages, 6 figures, 3 tables of fit parameters. v3: in an addendum at page 17 we show that the Minimal Dark Matter prediction agrees with the anomaly in the positron spectrum announced by the PAMELA collaboratio

Current water resources in Europe and Africa - Matching water supply and water demand

Ensuring good quality water in sufficient quantities for all legitimate uses is a major policy aim of the European Commission, and the main aim of the Blueprint to Safeguard Europe's Water, which will be launched in 2012. The Blueprint is the EU policy response to emerging challenges in the field of water. It is within this policy framework that JRC carries out research on hydrological simulation modelling, aiming to provide scientific assessments of general available water resources and floods, droughts and water scarcity. The main aim of the work is to assess current and future water availability versus current and future water demands from different economic sectors. Before future challenges can be addressed, a thorough analysis of current water resources is needed. The scope of this study is an analysis of current water resources in Europe and Africa, and matching water supply and water demand from various sectors. Several attempts already have been made to assess European, African and global water resources. Recently, Haddeland et al. (2011) produced a multimodel estimate of the global terrestrial water balance at 0.5o spatial resolution. This has been achieved within the Global Water Availability Assessment (GWAVA), developed in the context of the EU-funded WATCH project (https://gateway.ceh.ac.uk ). Within another EU-funded project GLOWASIS (Global Water Scarcity Information System), Utrecht University and Deltares develop a global water scarcity map also at 0.5o spatial resolution, to be finished Dec 2012 (http://glowasis.eu ). First results are published in Van Beek et al (2011). JRC is partner in this project to benchmark the global product with the higher resolution European and African assessments. A further study was conducted by Hoekstra and Mekonnen (2011), assessing global water scarcity for the world’s major river basins. Other available information on global water resources are available from: • FAO, Aquastat portal http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/globalmaps/index.stm • UNEP: http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/freshwater-availability-groundwater-and-river-flow • Cleaningwater: http://cleaningwater.se/whats-new/geographical-distribution • IWMI Institute: http://www.iwmi.cgiar.org/WAtlas/Default.aspx • World Resources Institute: http://earthtrends.wri.org/maps_spatial/maps_detail_static.php?map_select=265&theme=4 • Monde diplomatique: http://www.monde-diplomatique.fr/cartes/disponibiliteeau • GRID-Arendal (Africa): http://www.grida.no/publications/vg/africa/ • EEA (Europe): http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/figures/annual-water-availability-per-capita-by-country-2001 In general however, the analysis done in the products described above is done at national scales, at relatively coarse spatial resolution (0.5o), and using water demand data from the year 2000 or before, because more recent data are not yet available. The scope of the study presented here, is to carry out an higher spatial resolution analysis for Europe (5 km ~ 0.05o) and Africa (0.1o), using a daily timescale for modelling, and using for Europe new JRC analysis of water uses for irrigation, livestock, industry and energy, and domestic purposes. The analysis is carried out using the JRC LISFLOOD hydrological simulation model, supported by several other available models (EPIC, LUMP).JRC.H-Institute for Environment and Sustainability (Ispra

Electrocardiographic features, mapping and ablation of idiopathic outflow tract ventricular arrhythmias

Idiopathic outflow tract ventricular arrhythmias are ventricular tachycardias or premature ventricular contractions presumably not related to myocardial scar or disorders of ion channels. These arrhythmias have focal origin and display characteristic electrocardiographic features. The purpose of this article is to review the state of the art of diagnosis and treatment of idiopathic outflow tract ventricular arrhythmias